"room like green onions"this is probably the expectation of all people who can't afford a house, but is it realistic?a lot of people standing behind mr ma said, is because he has with his overturned operations in many industries, such as can make a pair of shoes, just the factory without any intermediate link, at the lowest price to enter ordinary people;also somebody standing in the opposite of ma, think ma said"eight years later the cheapest is the house in china, such as green house"wishful thinking, the future of the house price will be more and more high, only waiting for the falling house prices, do not buy a house now finally regret or the general public, mr ma is but let your breath quickly.
it is true that if one in purchasing power, mr ma is now worth about ordinary houses did price and spring onions, hundreds of millions of homes for him but is more common consumption.but there is no denying that big cities in china even three or four line city high housing prices have indeed become many insurmountable but camp, kill the young people's morale at the same time more compressed their desire to do better.statistics show that in beijing, it is futile to struggle to buy a house without eating or drinking for 80 years.<br/>
is there really no solution to high house prices?close to a period of time, as the xiaojie finance minister to the understanding of the future launch of the real estate tax plan, tipped by many media reports propaganda, sometimes seems to be real estate tax was really falling house prices"last straw", a lot of people to solve the high prices of the real estate tax on launch.but is that really going to happen, and will the introduction of a real estate tax really get the high house prices to work out?
the industry to have serious differences:
thought to drop one is:the launch of the real estate tax will undoubtedly make suite for house hold increasing costs, building the large increase in holding costs will make speculators sell their property, the market supply, can play the role of inhibition of house prices.as a result, the value of some of the cities in the central and western regions, which are severely underdeveloped, will fall sharply.the real estate tax will surely depress housing prices, eventually allowing the people to vote with their feet and hasten to leave.
think the party cannot fall says:maybe a small city can reduce the short-term, but to a second-tier city population growth, the real estate tax not only cannot fall house prices could also backfire, let the extra costs to house prices and rents, thus becoming the center of the drive power of urban property prices and rents rose again.because the fundamental factor determining housing price is supply and demand, the real effect of real estate tax is to increase the holding cost of the house.it is only an auxiliary factor.less and less land in a second-tier cities, but the population continues to gather, the key factors affecting the development of long-term housing prices is population, so want to through real estate tax cut prices in big cities is impossible.
in fact, the above two views say yes, real estate development has associated too much, so want to by a real estate tax can achieve the goal of reconciling all contradictions is unrealistic.everything so far has not qualitative, what will the future remains to be time to give an answer, it is a little early to draw a conclusion, but refer to developed countries such as new york and london, launched at the start of the real estate tax purpose, it is not designed to rein in property prices, so use it as a"heavy weapons"to also do not reach the purpose.
in the author's view, high house prices are not unsolved, but there is a key factor which many people ignore, that is the wave of artificial intelligence attack.say so, because the development of artificial intelligence in recent years, in fact has already put a lot of people see its power:because of the artificial intelligence, the function of the car is becoming more and more cheaper in price;the price of electronic products such as mobile phones is getting more and more expensive, and manufacturers of all major mobile phones are fighting a price war.next, we will discuss the influence of artificial intelligence on real estate by jack ma's"eight years after the house, like green onions".can the"green house like green onion"be realized?
this is when it comes to long-term factors, which affect the housing prices is population, north of guangzhou, house prices constantly push up the main reason there are large numbers of people are pouring into talent to enter without controversy in promoting the development of science and technology, industrial development, so the city resources is becoming more and more perfect.
housing development:the long term population land, short-term, medium-term looking at financial
with the subsoil of the mobile internet and artificial intelligence, the future of the population distribution is always there are two possible:
one is north to guangzhou, this kind of big cities gradually expanding, become each can absorb billion level super city of the population.similarly, provincial capitals will follow this logic.
is a relatively uniform population distribution, and everyone can find his favorite place, although far from the prosperous but also living very convenient.the technology of artificial intelligence seems to be on the latter side.
, therefore, the judgment of artificial intelligence and other technologies seems to be the opposite of high house prices.if ar is sufficiently developed, it is possible that the office in other places will be, and high-quality education will not depend on the supply of teachers who are always undersupplied, and high-quality medical care will be tied to the region.that way people can get jobs there, and high-quality social services like education and health care.why would he need to live in a place with high prices?
there are scientists predicted that more than 70% of people will lose in the future full-time jobs, because the work will be replaced by robots or artificial intelligence.similarly, mr ma has also put forward the same question, he thinks that after 30 years of our children may can not find work, the argument is also given the development of artificial intelligence robot replace, artificial intelligence instead of white collar workers, is the future trend.as long as there are"rules"to follow, artificial intelligence can be replaced.hawking says artificial intelligence will hit the middle class hard.
if the most white-collar jobs in the first-tier cities are replaced by artificial intelligence, the number of job opportunities in first-tier cities will gradually decrease, and people can only go back to their hometown.after the reduction, the first line of house prices will fall, or even collapse.what would happen if there was another recession?
in fact, this kind of view is no longer fresh, real estate bosses pan shiyi would have thrown"artificial intelligence and the mobile internet is the real estate's point of view"., he thought, with the progress of science and technology, working from home is not impossible, so people's pursuit for the location of the house and the room will be weakened, reverse lifestyle changes will inevitably affect everyone for house attitude shift, the shift is visible, so he decided that the future prices will go downhill, this is probably why he this two years without heavy assets turned to sell more partial operation of the"share"in the field of reason.
now in experiencing a new round of real estate market changes, extensive development has gone through 30 years of real estate, more or less need to change in some aspects, we can see whether it is a blow for investment speculation or for developers of price, the development of the rental market can see out of the country for the steady development of the real estate market return urgently, house prices brought about by the explosive growth in the past few years problem is irreversible, is also not happen again in the future.the real estate problem has risen to the big problem of national economy and people's livelihood.it is the trend of the future to solve the newly needed housing problem.