on january 9, 2018, local time, on behalf of the south korean side in panmunjom north and south korea"the home of peace"to hold high-level talks, north korea is north korea sent delegations to pyeongchang winter games, to improve inter-korean relations and other issues of common concern for discussion.oriental ic figure
and one-month after two years, the two koreas resume high-level talks in panmunjom.9.in the north-south relations ambiguously see at the same time, the pacific on the other side is filled with different arguments:each big mainstream media in the united states are scrambling to discuss whether the timing of limited military strikes against north korea.
this kind of public opinion field contrast even sparked a reaction of the president of the united states.10, the president of the united states in the trump with south korea's president, wen yin calls to the us media reports of the"rumours"."with us media reported recently i am considering a military strike on north korea, this is purely false reports."said trump, north and south during the dialogue will not have any military action.
in the north-south dialogue for many days later, the trump finally open positive response, at the right time and situation, if north korea is willing to dialogue, the united states will open the door for dialogue.
"peninsula crisis can solve the most main or look at the attitude of the united states.the united states to see the action of denuclearization of the korean peninsula, otherwise will not relax sanctions against the north.", referring to north korea peninsula situation after high-level talks, south korea research center of fudan university professor of surging shi yuanhua 10 news(www.thepaper.cn), said north korea's just borrow the foreign promote relations between north and south, won't make the denuclearization of the korean peninsula has substantial progress.
shi yuanhua think that solve the nuclear issue of north korea still depends on the united states and north korea on the denuclearization of the korean peninsula can reach a consensus on the issue.
"in the next few months, may be because of the olympic games and the korean peninsula inter-korean talks between the two countries to quiet for a period of time, but this does not mean that the military will not occur."on january 9, the articles published in the wall street journal by pushing up again"to use"public opinion.
, a day after the united states"foreign policy"magazine recently published an article titled"it's time to bomb north korea view of schools of thought contend", view clearly put forward"to destroy north korea's nuclear arsenal is still in the national interest", the author is a famous american military strategist, historian edward luttwak, he in the united states center for strategic and international studies(csis), a senior fellow at, at the same time as the pentagon as an adviser.
edward luttwak said in his article with a clear-cut stand, no matter the inter-korean high-level talks will produce what kind of results, for the united states, now should not be abandoned by force to destroy north korea's nuclear weapons option, but this time, perhaps is the last opportunity to can take action, and it is a viable opportunity.
north and south korea on behalf of the 9 high-level talks in panmunjom, but north korea did not want to talk about nuclear weapons.reuters news agency reported on january 10, the two sides issued a joint statement after the talks made no mention of north korea's nuclear weapons program.the rok officials said that when they tried to talked about north korea's weapons program, north korea is represented expressed anger.
"the subject absurd to discuss north korea's nuclear weapons, because the goal of these weapons only the united states."chief representative for north korea to the high-level talks li shanquan(ri son gwon) brief statement said after the talks, north korea's nuclear weapons will not aim at brothers, south korea, also won't pointed to china and russia.
on january 9, the wall street journal reported that it gives more suspect pyongyang is to buy time to complete its nuclear program.at the same time, the report said, really can reduce military tensions in the dialogue between the two countries, but because of the two countries put forward each other can't accept mired in stalemate.north korea want the united states before the dialogue announced to stop military activities such as south korea joint military exercise between the two countries, while the us says dialogue is not the purpose of pure nuclear freeze, but to abolish the north's nuclear weapons.
in 10,"foreign policy"magazine published again tit-for-tat opinion piece"bombing of north korea is not the time", by the house armed services committee members of two ruben gallego, ted lieu, penned their opposition is to destroy north korea's nuclear arsenal must send troops on the ground, this is likely to trigger the north koreans to use nuclear weapons, result in america, japan and mass casualties of civilian and military personnel.
"hawk"unequivocal:lack of south korea's defense is not an excuse to
prior to that, the wall street journal has reported that if the united states restrictive attack, north korea is likely to be launched at the same time the demilitarized zone near the remote to seoul to retaliate, but does not rule out the possible use of nuclear weapons threat of north korea, so the united states is in view of the feasibility.
but also has the american media, us government officials are privately while north korea make nuclear test, the possibility of u.s.military restrictive attack on related facilities.
edward luttwak articles on behalf of the united states"hawk"point of view-a targeted restrictive strike now also not too late.
he responded that when it comes to north korea's nuclear weapons and the possibility of restrictive attack american policymaking circles tend to worry about direct consequences of revenge, cannot afford to north korea and the united states cannot meet the needs of thousands of bombers.but it seems to the pentagon, senior consultant, from north korea last year on september 3, for the sixth time test until november 28, the first intercontinental ballistic missile launch, north korea also did not achieve the goal of warheads and missile target assembly into a combat weapon.nuclear device, along with north korea is not more than thirty, and most of them are smaller, in the case of north korea has reasonable military plans, these facilities do not need thousands of air strikes.
"the united states are always used to hope that at the time of local war, for a specific state of each air defense radar, surface-to-air missile, airstrips and combat aircraft bombed to destroy, but ignores the bombing of real target is the key, so the idea of ego needs to be changed."he wrote.
the damage done by involving north korea if on the offensive, edward luttwak pointed out that using the traditional rockets in seoul, south korea, and its surrounding areas for revenge is not the united states to"excuse"paralysis"policy", these consequences to a large degree is the ability to south korea for many years to strengthen the fight against the result of inaction, now, south korea and the united states should be prepared to related as soon as possible.
"ultimately for any damage caused by south korea, should not let us in the face of their own interests and the world under the condition of other allies threatened to paralyze the itself."his this view was sparked by two american house of representatives, this idea is not only the most hurt u.s.interests, is the biggest danger to american friends.
"cautious"to use the data to speak:congress last year, even if the bill
"caution"in the"debate"in the united states has also been thering is no lack of sound.
the serious 8, the washington post newspaper that day also joined the"debate".according to the washington post pointed out that any force against the limitation of the north, are likely to lead to local war spread to the entire korean peninsula of nuclear war, even this will not only cause significant losses and economic losses, and it will be the united states in an unbearable weight of war after the second world war.
in january 8, the new york times published stories, points out that the central intelligence agency(cia) and other current and former u.s.intelligence official recently said in an interview, failed to foresee the rapid advancement of the north korea in the past few months, as the one of the most serious intelligence failures.
"at the start of trump the president took office, u.s.intelligence agencies tell a new government, while north korea has made missile, but there are still plenty of time-four years-can slow down or stop north korea from developing to nuclear warheads throwing missiles to the city."wrote the new york times, but in the last year on september 3, kim jong un was sixth bomb detonated.after initial misgivings, analysts agree that this is the first time that north korea success of hydrogen bomb test, its explosive power is leveled hiroshima about 15 times of the atomic bomb.it also makes prediction before intelligence agencies, the trump to power after a few months were ruthlessly overturned.
the washington post reported that the korean peninsula, go to now,"the military option"is already a option cannot be put into practice, and to support the arguments of the reason is simple:a military strike will cause huge casualties and damage, the cost of which is the united states cannot afford.
"if pyongyang to achieve the goal of the threat of seoul into a"sea of fire", so it is estimated that even without the use of north korea's weapons of mass destruction, single in the seoul metropolitan areas, the number of casualties is likely to more than 100000 people in 48 hours.said the defense department assessment, second korean war could cause from 200000 to 300000 in the first 90 days of south korea and the united states military casualties, there are hundreds of thousands of civilians dead."according to the washington post 8 cited above data, and the data will be more than in the united states since world war ii all casualties in the war.
this paper also cited the u.s.congressional research service(congressional research service) at last year's study, that is in the peninsular war, may need to be as many as 690000 u.s.reinforcements, and 2000 aircraft and 160 naval ship, which is the united states cannot afford.
another risk is that local war easily all-out war on the korean peninsula, will cause the peninsula in japan even great damage and loss of life.and for the united states, if the conflict upgrade, not only will affect at least 100000 american citizens(some estimates as high as 500000), which damaged the country's economy, china-us relations, will make us take a heavy price.
"even a rough look at another the outline of the korean war, was enough to require trump attack launched a nuclear war at any suggestion.however, the bigger question is, why(usa) administrative department of the 'adult' is also seriously consider military solution?"the washington post wrote the article.
the situation on the korean peninsula prospects:sanctions effect has been showing?
although has difficult to determined the korean peninsula is headed, but an obvious fact is that north korea is want is not the united states is willing to give.
"north korea is not nuclear, and although the united states supports talks, or to the denuclearization of the korean peninsula being lied.during the suspension of a joint military exercises with the united states, just postponed."professor of fudan university shi yuanhua tells surging news.
in the presence of"structural contradiction", although the two koreas are trying to show foreign relations to ease the positive signal, tensions on the korean peninsula has not been substantial detente.
the wall street journal also think that the most difficult to predict variables is the president of the united states trump.trump 6 and 10, and in the yin call twice, expressed the hope to participate in the dialogue.but before that, trump but send twitter on north korea's leader, kim jong un, said,"we have a larger nuclear button", in a very unusual way responded to kim jong un, in the new year address"nuclear button"on my desk.
however, it seems to trump, argues that american sanctions against the north and military threat, it is contributing to the inter-korean dialogue to reason."if it wasn't my firm, strong willingness to using"all possible"against north korea, now really someone will believe that will be a dialogue between north and south korea?"he said 4 on twitter.
reference news previously reported, south korea development institute(tolerated because) last month, according to a report published by the security council sanctions resolution will be influential in 2018, the korean economy will blow.researchers said, compared with 2016,"labor news"on north korea toward the media such as the main industry in the production of investment results reported sharply reduced, thus speculated that north korea in 2017, the overall industrial development may not be in 2016.