All the way from modi absence "area" summit to see China and India steel trade

1, economic development and infrastructure to promote India's steel output growth obviously

in recent years, India's economy to achieve rapid growth, especially after modi took office, the government promote the building of railways, highways and other infrastructure, rendering the downstream steel industry rapid development momentum.Rapid economic growth and infrastructure effectively boost India's steel consumption growth, promoted the rapid growth of steel production in India.

India since 2015, beyond the United States as the world's third-largest steel superpower, the steel industry association, says that by the end of 2017, India will surpass Japan, after the world's second largest steel producer in China.According to Lange steel research center, according to the monitoring data in 2016, India's crude steel production 95.618 million tons, up 7.4%;In 2007-2007, India's crude steel output average annual compound growth rate of 6.7%, higher than the same period 5.7% (5.7%) in China.

but compared to India and China, its size disparity, a big gap, in 2016, 11.8% of India's crude steel production is for China only.

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figure 1 change India's crude steel production in 2007-2016

2, India ore market share declined significantly in China

throughout India's iron ore imports since 2000 in China, presents the normal distribution curve, iron ore imports between 2000 and 2009 China India rise year by year, peaked in 2009, to 107 million tons, the Indian ore imports in China market share of 17.1%;Since 2010, as the Indian government to "overweight" of iron ore export restrictions and ore grade quality declining, China imports dropped sharply in the Indian ore, especially in 2015, only 2.079 million tons, the same period of China import iron ore ratio is only 0.2% of the total;And in the years before 2011, India ore in China's market share is over 10%, highest in 2005 reached 24.9%, accounting for nearly a quarter.

in 2016, the Indian government to cancel the low-grade iron ore powder and ore export tariffs, the Indian iron ore by a sharp increase in Chinese imports of 15.564 million tons, 2016 year-on-year growth, at 648.5%, rose to 1.5% market share in China.

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import Indian ore figure 2 China

3, India limited iron ore exports continue to "overweight" course review

as early as in 2007, the government announced that for the first time for iron ore export tariffs, the calculating model, from the powder ore and ore per ton unified collection of 300 rupees (about $7).Due to the controversy is more, the government announced that it would taste after half a year of less than 62.5% of the iron ore tariffs dropped to 50 rupees.After the financial crisis, the Indian iron ore tariffs dropped to zero.

from the end of 2009 the government to intensify the iron ore export restrictions.Since December 2009, the Indian iron ore lumps export tariffs from 5% to 10%, and the iron ore powder ore export tariffs from zero to 5%;In April 2010, India announced it would again iron ore rock ore export tariffs from 10% to 15%;Indian railways is raised export railway freight 100 rubles/tons of iron ore.

in March 2011, India continues to increase iron ore export tariffs, the powder ore raised from 5% to 20%, ore is raised from 15% to 20%.Again since December 30 2011 the government of India to raise iron ore export tariff rate, powder ore and ore export tax rate to 30%.

in addition to raise the relevant taxes, India also has carried on the limits to iron ore exports.In July 2010, India's second largest iron ore producer karnataka state executive iron ore export bans, forcing the state many mines shut down;Since then, India's orissa state also limits iron ore supply.

until February 2016, in the face of the global iron ore prices fell, in order to improve especially goa India iron ore enterprises competitiveness, the government of India to proposal to cancel Indian low grade iron ore powder (block) export tariffs.Iron content of less than 58% of iron ore powder export tariffs will be cancelled directly from 10% to zero, less than 58% of the ore export tariffs will be cancelled directly from 30% to zero.

4, India open trade protection of China's exports India steel resistance increase

with the rapid development of Indian iron and steel industry in recent years, in order to protect the domestic iron and steel enterprises, India the growing trade remedy investigation for Chinese steel products, India in 2015 for Chinese steel products launched three anti-dumping investigation, and the hot rolled plate, hot rolled plate has launched two safeguards;India for Chinese steel products in 2016 launched 6 investigations, India has become the China iron and steel products launched the country with the largest trade investigations.

India's ministry of finance recently established in a final, of the China, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia six countries imported hot coil, hot rolled sheet and plate levy anti-dumping duties, in the period of five years, and levied retroactively to the August 8, 2016, the date of the provisional anti-dumping duty imposed.

as India's trade protection, China's steel exports to India the number fell.According to Lange steel research center, according to the monitoring data in 2016, our country export India steel 3.314 million tons, reduce 1.447 million tons in 2015, year-on-year decline of 30.4%.

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figure 3 Chinese steel exports India

5, the Indian government, 300 million tons of "iron dream" match demand

the government of India in early 2017, according to draft the national policy of steel 2017, Indian steel department plans to fiscal 2030 crude steel capacity from the current 122 million tons to 300 million tons.Previously, India will realize the dream "iron" is scheduled for 2025.The latest steel policy goals include, to the 2030 fiscal year will be India's steel consumption per capita increased from the current 61 kg to 160 kg, at the same time the country will become a net exporter of steel.

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4 crude steel apparent consumption per capita in both China and India compared to

from India and China's per capita apparent consumption by contrast, India's current crude steel apparent consumption per capita is only equivalent to the level of China in the 90 s.Now India's population has reached 1.326 billion people, even in 2030 reached 160 kg/people's consumption level, and only at the level of China in 2003.India's land area is equivalent to 34% of China, 96% of China's population, but only 20% of China's GDP per capita, its efforts in infrastructure construction and steel consumption intensity are behind China.

but from India's industrialization and urbanization development, at present India's urbanization rate is only 33%, well below the 56% of China's urbanization rate;As the Indian to speed up infrastructure construction and urbanization development, the steel demand is bound to surge ahead.According to the world steel association (WSA), India's demand for steel products in 2017 could reach 88.6 million tons, more than 2016 tonnes in 83.5 million.The world steel association of India's steel demand in 2018 also has a positive attitude, and is expected to grow 7.1% to 94.9 million tons.

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