the financial times published the paper net 8 chief economics commentator Martin Wolf written article titled "the tide of globalization is turning".The article says, turned to the globalization process?This is a very important problem.The answer is closely related to the global economy and the western political situation.
immigration some very specific questions.Countries in the globalization age not universally promises and personnel flow freely.Therefore, here I will mainly talk about trade and capital flows.In these areas seems to be very clear evidence.Globalization is a bottleneck, and reversed in some areas.
the analysis of the peterson institute for international economics in Washington believes that since 2008 the proportion of world trade and output almost no change, to become such stagnation of the longest since world war ii period.According to global trade alert, global trade size even in January 2015 to March 2016 also appeared during the period of stagnation, while the global economy continues to grow.Cross-border stock of financial assets and the proportion of world output in 2007 reached a peak of 57%, to 36% by 2015.Finally, the foreign direct investment inflows to global output ratio is still far lower than 3.3% in 2007, although the proportion is growing slowly.
as a result, further economic integration of the dynamic stall, and even in some ways is reversed.Globalization is no longer driving growth in the world.If globalization tends to end, and even reverse, this will not be for the first time since the early 19th century industrial revolution.Another globalisation happened in the late 19th century era of empire.Stop the globalization process, the first world war "great depression" is completely destroyed it.U.S. economic and foreign policy after 1945 mainly engaged in rebuilding the global economy, but the globalization is carried out between sovereign nations, and the guidance of the international economic organizations.If this November support protectionism and undermines the global institutions of Donald trump was elected President of the United States, the postwar us policy core will be denied.
in view of the history and the current political disputes over trade, particularly in the us), people will naturally ask, now the era of globalization will repeat.The driving factors behind this we need to understand.
in part because of slower pace of globalization, many opportunities if not disappear completely, is also decreased dramatically.For example, when basically all labor-intensive manufacturers will relocate production in rich countries, such products trade growth will decline.Likewise, when the history of the world's biggest investment boom (in China) slow, a lot of demand for commodities also must fall.This will affect their price and quantity.And, in a "life" of the credit boom of the world's end, of course, to cause a decline in cross-border holdings of financial assets.Finally, after decades of foreign direct investment, can benefit from many of the companies should have to seize the opportunity and success or failed (in some important cases).
however, this is not the whole story.Trade liberalization has stalled, people can see protectionism on the rise.The financial crisis led to the regulatory measures, many of which moves will surely slow down the cross-border capital flows.Rising xenophobia and trade slowed may slow the growth of foreign direct investment.In short, policy support.
fell more political support.The core again in the story.Trump is since the 1930 s the most protectionist U.S. presidential candidates.Quite to the point, however, is to set up the "return to Asia" strategy of Hillary Clinton started against the trans-pacific partnership agreement.
in the United States and the European Union is negotiating the transatlantic trade and investment partnership agreement now in deep trouble.The doha round of multilateral trade talks is dying.The most important of all, some important groups in the western people no longer believe that increased trade will benefit them.Relatively real incomes and adaptation of import growing evidence, provides some support for such doubt.
as a result, the stagnation of globalization at best also appeared.It may be reversed?The answer is yes.Need to keep the peace between powers of globalization.Some people will say, globalization needs a hegemony countries: 1914 years after the 1914 years ago in Britain and the United States.In high-income countries economic weakness, major changes and the global balance of power increased inequality, globalization could collapse again.
the stagnation of globalization is important?The answer is yes.In the era of globalization, the global family income inequality appeared for the first time since the early 19th century.From 1980 to 1980, the global average real income increased by 120%.Globalization provides the opportunity is very important.Enclosed with each other can't be in the future.
globalization (major) mistake was not ensure more equally share the benefits, especially within the high-income economies.Unfortunately, the same globalization failed to protect those people who suffer, efforts to mitigate their impact.But we can't stop economic changes.Furthermore, productivity growth and the impact of new technology on employment and wages, far more than the impact of import growth.We can't take all the problems all blame to globalization.
however, nowadays the globalization has stalled, policy of the globalization and the same is true of.It also may be reversed.Even stagnation, globalization could make economic progress is slow, and reduce the opportunities of the poor around the world.Promote globalization forward need different domestic and external policies.The future depends on the improvement of the management of globalisation.This improvement is possible?Anyway, I am not optimistic.